Election 2024: Mahama Pulls Ahead with 51.1%, Bawumia Lags at 37.3% – Global InfoAnalytics2 min read

As the December 2024 elections draw near, a recent poll from Global InfoAnalytics reveals that John Dramani Mahama, leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is firmly ahead of Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).

Mahama boasts 51.1% support among committed voters, while Bawumia trails significantly at 37.3%. Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten and Nana Kwame Bediako capture 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively.

The unweighted model shows Mahama maintaining his edge with 49.3%, compared to Bawumia’s 35.9%. Voter apathy poses a significant hurdle for the NPP, with 16% of likely non-voters identifying as NPP supporters, while only 3% of NDC supporters fall into that category.

Floating voters and those undecided represent a combined 77%.

Mahama has a decisive 31-point lead among floating voters (54% to 23%) and is also gaining traction with first-time voters, where he now leads 46% to 38%. Bawumia’s support among Muslim voters—historically a critical demographic for him—has dipped nearly 4% since July.

The poll also indicates a shift among former President Nana Akufo-Addo’s supporters, with 19% now favoring Mahama. In key regions like Greater Accra and Central, significant percentages of 2020 NPP voters have switched allegiance to Mahama.

Regionally, Mahama leads in 12 out of 16 regions, including a recent gain in Bono. Bawumia retains strength in Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, though he faces stiff competition from Kyeremanten and Bediako.

In a reflection of broader voter concerns, the economy, jobs, and education are at the forefront of voters’ minds, with 70% identifying the economy as their top issue. The sentiment regarding the country’s direction is also telling: 62% of voters feel Ghana is heading the wrong way, a viewpoint shared by 88% of NDC supporters and 74% of floating voters.

With President Akufo-Addo’s job approval at just 36%, Mahama’s position as the leading candidate appears strengthened as the elections approach, placing Bawumia and the NPP in a challenging position amid rising voter dissatisfaction.