The Argument of “Russia-Ukraine War” As The Justification For Continuous Economic Crisis In Africa Countries is Completely Bogus Moving Forward: Razak Kojo Opoku5 min read

 

Ukraine shares borders with 7 seven countries such as: Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Moldova, Belarus and Russia.

Currently, Russia is at War with Ukraine, and consequently it is expected that the other countries which share immediate borders with Ukraine and Russia would have suffered the most critical economic crisis yet that is not the case and reality on the ground. It is therefore absolutely ridiculous for far away African Leaders to be crying over the impact of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

These aforementioned countries are the ones that are supposed to be harder hit and badly affected by the Russia-Ukraine War and not the very very far away African countries.

Analysis of the Economic Outlook of the six countries Sharing Borders with Ukraine and Russia:

POLAND

1. Inflation rate of Poland for the month of March 2023 was 16.2%.

In February 2023, inflation rate was 18.4%.

2. Fitch affirmed Poland at A, with stable outlook.

Moody’s affirmed Poland at A2, with stable outlook.

Standard & Poor (S&P) affirmed Poland at A, with stable outlook.

3. The National Bank of Poland(NBP) at its 4-5th April 2023 meetings, kept the Key Reference Rate(Policy Rate) unchanged at 6.75%.

The National Bank of Poland(NBP) kept the Lombard Rate unchanged at 7.25%, the Rediscount Rate at 6.80% and the Deposit Rate at 6.85%.

4. The government debt accounted for 49.3% of the Country’s Nominal GDP in December 2022.

5. The currency of Poland has been relatively stable with an exchange rate fluctuating between 4 and 5 Zloty for a Euro.

As at 24th April 2023;

1 USD = 4.18 PLN

1 USD = 11.66 Cedis

1 PLN = 2.81 Cedis

6. The unemployment rate in Poland in February 2023 is 5.5%.

ROMANIA

1. Inflation rate of Romania for the month of March 2023 was 14.53%.

In February 2023, inflation rate was 15.52%.

2. Fitch affirmed Romania at BBB-, with stable outlook.

Moody’s affirmed Romania at Baa3, with stable outlook.

Standard & Poor(S&P) affirmed Romania at BBB-, with stable outlook.

3. The National Bank of Romania(NBR) at its meeting in April 2023 kept its monetary Policy Rate unchanged at 7% and the 7% Policy Rate of Romania is expected to remain unchanged throughout the year 2023.

4. The Romania’s public debt was up by only 2% of GDP in January 2023.

Romania government debt accounted for 47.2% of the country’s Nominal GDP in December 2022.

5. The Romanian currency is relatively strong.

As at 24th April 2023;

1 USD = 4.48 RON

1 USD = 11. 66 Cedis

1 RON = 2.62 Cedis

6. The unemployment rate in Romania was 5.5% in February 2023.

HUNGARY

1. Inflation rate of Hungary for the month of March 2023 was 25.7%.

In February 2023, the inflation rate was 25.2%.

2. Fitch affirmed Hungary at BBB, with negative outlook.

Standard & Poor(S&P) affirmed Hungary at BBB-, with stable outlook.

Moody’s affirmed Hungary at Baa2 with stable outlook.

3. The Hungarian National Bank at its meeting on the 28th March 2023 kept the Country’s base rate(Policy Rate) unchanged at 13%.

The Monetary Council of the Hungarian National Bank also kept the Deposit Rate at 12.5% and Collateralized Lending Rate at 25%.

4. The Hungary government debt accounted for 71% of the Country’s Nominal GDP in December 2022.

5. The Hungarian Forint(currency) is amongst the worst performing currencies in Central Europe. However, it is still better than most of the Currencies in Africa.

As at 24th April 2023;

1 USD = 340.84 HUF

1 USD = 11. 66 Cedis

1 HUF = 0.034 Cedi

6. The unemployment rate in Hungary in February 2023 was 4%.

SLOVAKIA

1. Inflation rate of Slovakia for the month of March 2023 was 14.8%.

In February 2023, the inflation rate was 15.4%.

2. Fitch affirmed Slovakia at A, with negative outlook.

Standard & Poor(S&P) affirmed Slovakia at A+, with negative outlook.

Moody’s affirmed Slovakia at A2, with negative outlook.

3. The Policy Rate and interest rate of Slovakia for the month of March 2023 is 3.5%.

4. Slovakia government debt accounted for 57.8% of the Country’s Nominal GDP in December 2022.

5. The currency of Slovakia is very strong. In 2009, Slovakia adopted the Euro while Czech Republic retained its Koruna.

As at 24th April 2023;

1.1 USD = 1 Euro

1 USD = 11.66 Cedis

1 Euro = 12. 83 Cedis

6. The unemployment rate in Slovakia in March 2023 was 5.6%.

BELARUS

1. Inflation rate of Belarus for the month of March 2023 was 6%.

In February 2023, the inflation rate was 11.7%.

2. Fitch affirmed Belarus at RD.

Moody’s affirmed Belarus at Ca, with negative outlook.

Standard & Poor(S&P) affirmed Belarus at SD.

3. The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus(NBRB) kept the Policy Rate and Interest Rate at 10.5%.

4. Belarus government debt accounted for 33.5% of the Country’s Nominal GDP in March 2023.

5. The Belarus currency is relatively strong.

As at 24th April 2023;

1 USD = 2.53 Belarusian Ruble

1 USD = 11.66 Cedis

1 Belarusian Ruble = 4. 62 Cedis

6. The unemployment rate in Belarus in February 2023 is 3.9%. It was 4.9% in January 2023.

MOLDOVA

1. Inflation rate of Moldova for the month of March 2023 was 22%.

In February 2023, the inflation rate was 25.9%.

2. Moody’s affirmed Moldova at B3, with negative outlook.

According to the Economic Intelligence Unit, the rating for economic structure risk of Moldova is at B.

3. The National Bank of Moldova at its March 2023 meeting slashed its benchmark interest rate/policy rate to 14%.

Bank Deposit Interest was also reduced to 12%.

4. Moldova government debt accounted for 34.7% of the Country’s Nominal GDP in December 2022.

5. The currency of Moldova is not strong but better than most African countries.

As at April 2023;

1 USD = 17.99 Moldovan Leu

1 USD = 11.66 Cedis

1 Moldovan Leu = 0.65 Cedis

6. The unemployment rate in Moldova in 2023 is 4.6%.

Conclusion
1. Ghana, and the other African Countries which are geographically very far away from Ukraine and Russia have no tenable justification to continuously cite Russia-Ukraine War as the major cause of economic crisis on the African Continent.

It is like Ukraine, Russia, Poland, Romania etc. crying over the impact of Ghana-Togo War or Togo-Benin War or Benin-Nigeria War or Ghana-Burkina Faso War or Ghana-Ivory Coast War etc on their respective economies.

2. Per the facts and figures available, the 6 Countries namely, Poland, Romania, Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary and Belarus which share borders directly with Ukraine and Russia are doing very well in terms of economic recovery, much more better than African Countries.

3. Leaders of African Countries should stop whining and shifting of blames on Russia-Ukraine War. They need to walk the talk and find solutions to the socioeconomic challenges of their respective Countries.

4. Patty’s and Government Communication Machinery should stop or minimize this nuisance arguments of Russia-Ukraine War because it is gradually increasingly becoming boring in the ears of the Citizens.